UN Report: World Set to Overshoot 1.5°C, With Himalayan Nations Among the Most at Risk
Nairobi— A new UN report says the planet will almost certainly cross the 1.5°C warming threshold soon, but a narrow path remains to bring temperatures back down if the world acts now.
The world is on track to exceed the 1.5°C limit set under the Paris Agreement, likely within the next few years, according to a new report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). The report, titled Limiting Overshoot, warns that climate risks will intensify sharply once the threshold is crossed, but says returning below it is still achievable with decisive action.
It outlines an “overshoot, peak, and decline” pathway: immediate, sustained cuts to greenhouse gases, including methane, on the way to net-zero, followed by a longer-term shift to net-negative emissions using carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods such as afforestation.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres pointed to this year’s extreme heat, wildfires and floods as a warning sign, saying the overshoot above 1.5 degrees must be kept “as small and short as possible.”
Even in the most optimistic scenario, warming would still peak at 1.8°C before declining. Most scenarios project a higher peak. The report cautions that every extra fraction of a degree raises the risk of crossing irreversible tipping points, including the destabilization of major ice sheets, degradation of the Amazon rainforest, and disruption to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the ocean current system that helps regulate global climate.
For mountain nations like Nepal, such tipping points carry particular weight. Faster glacial melt, erratic monsoons, and glacial lake outburst floods are among the risks scientists have long linked to sustained Himalayan warming.
The report stresses that emissions cuts and adaptation must advance together, though some damage will likely be irreversible regardless of future action. It calls on countries with the greatest historical responsibility to cut emissions fastest, with equity and justice guiding the global response.
CDR can only help bring the world back below 1.5°C if peak warming stays well under 2°C and emissions cuts continue alongside it, not instead of it, the report notes, calling for strong governance to prevent misuse.
“There are no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen, urging immediate action rather than leaving the crisis to the next generation.